Brexit

Anything that doesn't fit anywhere else, but that's still CH related.

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loringa
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Real Name: Andrew Loring
Location: South Gloucestershire

Re: Brexit

Post by loringa »

Both Brexiteers and former Remainers may find this analysis of interest. It was written by a colleague whose background is in the City:

There is a view emerging in the City that Brexit could be a “hard “ Brexit in all but name. A new analysis of the UK’s Brexit deal has dubbed the agreement with the European Union “less patisserie department than thin gruel.” A research note by analysts at JP Morgan (JPM) published on Monday read said that the “deal provides for zero-tariff, zero-quota trade in goods... but leaves significant regulatory and administrative impediments across both [the] goods and services trade.” It notes that future autonomy from the EU in trade and regulation is still ill-defined and that the long-run negative impact on UK GDP could amount to a 5% to 10% knock in comparison to where the economy might be with EU membership. The EU and UK struck an 11th-hour free trade agreement on Christmas Eve to avert a no deal Brexit when the transition period ended on 1 January. However, financial services were not covered by the agreement. The EU has granted the UK temporary waivers in two areas — clearing and securities settlement. Both sides have agreed to try and reach a separate, fuller agreement covering financial services by March. Warnings have come from all sides about the potential future relationship of the UK with the EU. Last week, the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey said the UK should avoid becoming a financial services “rule taker” from the EU at all costs, even if it means failing to strike a deal covering the sector. The JP Morgan analysis also comes as a new survey by the manufacturers’ organisation Make UK, released on Monday morning, suggested almost half of its members are worried about customs delays, seeing them as their biggest risk. Another 39% said the increased costs of complying with regulation are the biggest risk they face, and 14% are worried most about major customers relocating outside the UK.

Concerns over the new trading relationship between Britain and the European Union (EU) have clouded the outlook for manufacturers as they enter 2021. According to a new study by manufacturing group Make UK and accounting firm PwC, manufacturers have expressed fears over the attractiveness of the UK for both investment and talent moving forward. The survey shows that a third of firms believe the investment prospects for UK businesses will decrease having left the EU with just 18% of companies believing they will increase. Additionally, 26% think exports to the EU will fall, while just 16% believe they will increase. A third of respondents also feel that Britain’s ability to attract international talent will decrease with just 11% believing the UK will be a more attractive destination outside the bloc. Make UK says that this potentially hinders the government’s new immigration system which is specifically designed to encourage the best talent to come to the country. But, despite the worries over the new trading relationship with the EU and the attractiveness of the UK almost 48% of companies see a significant or moderate improvement for manufacturing in 2021. This is in contrast to how they see the prospects for the UK economy. 56% of firms expect the economy to deteriorate, while 46% are more negative about the prospects for the global economy. The research indicates that 47% of companies see customs delays as the biggest risk while concerns over national and local lockdowns were the second biggest risk (46%). Meanwhile, increased costs of regulation is reported as the biggest risk by 39% while over one in 10 firms (14%) also believe a relocation of a major customer out of the UK is their biggest risk.

Still, I'm sure the sunlit uplands are just over the horizon ... It is, after all, what we were promised by the various Leave campaigns and their leaders, including the current Prime Minister!
rockfreak
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Real Name: David Redshaw
Location: Gravesend, Kent

Re: Brexit

Post by rockfreak »

The misgivings of the City are well founded. The financial pages report that six billion euros-worth of trades fled the City on January 2. The trouble is that it will probably be the more kosher end of financial activities that go while the dodgier end will stay and further endorse London's reputation as a money laundering centre. I'm not sure about Andrew Bailey's concern about London being a rule taker from the EU. Some might have preferred some more stringent rules when the Lawsonite deregulated City sparked disastrous booms and busts in 1990 and 2007/8.
rockfreak
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Joined: Sun Apr 06, 2014 8:31 pm
Real Name: David Redshaw
Location: Gravesend, Kent

Re: Brexit

Post by rockfreak »

We know a little more now about who was funding the Leave campaign. The City money that went to Remain was apparently largely from the more respectable end of the financial sector - banks, pension funds, insurance, etc (maybe even Banker Brown). The Leave donations appear to have come largely from hedge funds and private equity. In other words, the dodgier, asset-stripping, tax avoiding, get-rich-quick wallahs that, in another age, Edward Heath called the unacceptable face of capitalism. And guess what. Tax exile Aaron Banks and his grinning little sidekick Andy Wigmore have now moved the Vote Leave campaign HQ to Ireland in order to keep it in the EU! You couldn't make this stuff up, could you. The Irish government are apparently scratching their heads trying to work out legal ways to kick them back out again.
AMP
Deputy Grecian
Posts: 211
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:15 pm
Real Name: Amp

Re: Brexit

Post by AMP »

The Vote Leave Campaign thingy can surely be wound up now?

More importantly, did anyone pay Farage to endorse Blair as the Covid Tsar?
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