CH Closed. COVID19

[Pe.A]

One of the more encouraging things to emerge from this present crisis is that some preparatory boarding schools are starting to go bust. These dubious institutions are of course essentially a profit-making business designed to help the rich give their brats a leg-up over others in the race for good qualifications and jobs. CH is slightly different in that it takes in less well off brats and gives them a leg up. Although not the very least advantaged of course. It takes care not to be lumbered with them and consigns them to the local councils who are struggling with ten years of Tory cuts. And of course it can expel (or "ask to leave") if they become too rebellious. I was one of those less well off youngsters who got access to facilities that were denied to my state school primary when I joined CH in 1952. I remember sitting in my class in Prep that year wondering why it was half the size of my old class.
The virtue of state schools, along with all other public goods, is that generally they can reschedule debt and survive. We are not Greece. We will not be treated so harshly by the central banks. But the "Independent" school sector (for which read "Private") prides itself on being self sufficient. So it must sink or swim on its own finances. For CH, all those holdings of land in the City and elsewhere. And the goodwill of Old Blues who might be a bit less benevolent these days having discovered that sex abuse by staff went on uncovered for thirty years. CH has built magnificent facilities for arts, sports, music, etc, employed loads of staff to coach in these areas. Now it must finance them. Their bed. They must lie in it.

At that tender age, you were already pondering on the issue of classroom sizes...?

[Pe.A]

I think everyone will be affected, state schools in particular.
Our gradual economic decline will be be accelerated by Covid and our third world status will be confirmed by Brexit.
In the meantime we will continue to borrow in Zimbabwesque proportions and of course we will need to borrow another £39bn to pay for a rebranded Brexit at the end of the year.
In the long term we will do what other third world countries do. "Sorry can't pay you back" and let the lenders take a haircut.
But borrowing money will become increasingly difficult and expensive.
Everyone will have to contribute more and there will be another redistribution of wealth leaving the poor even poorer.
And pensioners might even have to contribute!
So enjoy the triple lock and guaranteed 2.5% uptick whilst it lasts

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

[graham]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

bear in mind that current best-estimates place the transmissibility of the novel coronavirus at ~ 3 times that of typical seasonal influenza. So for every one person infected with flu by an infected individual, 3 are infected with coronavirus. On top of that, flu tends to yield symptoms within a few days of infection whereas the incubation period til symptoms of covid19 show up is 10-14 days. In other words, this thing is more infectious and provides infected individuals with more time to infect others before they realize they have it. Without these current measures, we'd be screwed.

If, when this is all over, it seems like we over-reacted, we probably did well.

[Pe.A]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

bear in mind that current best-estimates place the transmissibility of the novel coronavirus at ~ 3 times that of typical seasonal influenza. So for every one person infected with flu by an infected individual, 3 are infected with coronavirus. On top of that, flu tends to yield symptoms within a few days of infection whereas the incubation period til symptoms of covid19 show up is 10-14 days. In other words, this thing is more infectious and provides infected individuals with more time to infect others before they realize they have it. Without these current measures, we'd be screwed.

If, when this is all over, it seems like we over-reacted, we probably did well.

Sweden's doing alright, and they haven't imposed a full lockdown.

But what's concerning in a country like England which relies on its NHS, is the amount of cutbacks that will be imposed which will mean people unfortunately dying.

[sejintenej]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

521278 ! That is the figure as at yesterday to the number of people who have actually tested positive. Remember that is the figure based purely on hospital staff and those who have been tested upon reporting to hospitals. There is an estimate that this is 10% of those actually infected; there are over 5 million around and there is no vaccine nor certain cure

[Pe.A]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

521278 ! That is the figure as at yesterday to the number of people who have actually tested positive. Remember that is the figure based purely on hospital staff and those who have been tested upon reporting to hospitals. There is an estimate that this is 10% of those actually infected; there are over 5 million around and there is no vaccine nor certain cure

521278...? From where did you get that figure?

[sejintenej]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

521278 ! That is the figure as at yesterday to the number of people who have actually tested positive. Remember that is the figure based purely on hospital staff and those who have been tested upon reporting to hospitals. There is an estimate that this is 10% of those actually infected; there are over 5 million around and there is no vaccine nor certain cure

521278...? From where did you get that figure?

I am part of a large number of people who report daily for a Covid research tracking system. It is tied to covid.joinzoe.com though I don't know if that is a full address - iPads are bad for that.
A D V E R T
That said, we want as many people as we can get throughout the country . It involves a simple quick log-in, answer two questions (have you been tested for covid yes/no?, and how do you feel now normal / bad?) and then out every day. I do not know what would happen if you say you do not feel normal.

[scrub]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

We're only going to know that in hindsight, by that time we'll be back to partisan political bickering. People who haven't experienced it will complain about the damage to the economy, people who have will say we didn't go far enough or act soon enough. I don't think there will ever be an answer to that question that will satisfy a majority of people.

On a side note, I do wish people would stop comparing it with the 'flu'. It's SARS 2 and the long term complications are going to put another layer of stress on the health system that 'flu' never does.

[Pe.A]

521278 ! That is the figure as at yesterday to the number of people who have actually tested positive. Remember that is the figure based purely on hospital staff and those who have been tested upon reporting to hospitals. There is an estimate that this is 10% of those actually infected; there are over 5 million around and there is no vaccine nor certain cure

521278...? From where did you get that figure?

I am part of a large number of people who report daily for a Covid research tracking system. It is tied to covid.joinzoe.com though I don't know if that is a full address - iPads are bad for that.
A D V E R T
That said, we want as many people as we can get throughout the country . It involves a simple quick log-in, answer two questions (have you been tested for covid yes/no?, and how do you feel now normal / bad?) and then out every day. I do not know what would happen if you say you do not feel normal.

Do you know of any people who would have answered 'have you been tested for covid yes/no?,' with a No...?

[Pe.A]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

We're only going to know that in hindsight, by that time we'll be back to partisan political bickering. People who haven't experienced it will complain about the damage to the economy, people who have will say we didn't go far enough or act soon enough. I don't think there will ever be an answer to that question that will satisfy a majority of people.

On a side note, I do wish people would stop comparing it with the 'flu'. It's SARS 2 and the long term complications are going to put another layer of stress on the health system that 'flu' never does.

I wasn't necessarily comparing it to influenza. They're both respiratory illnesses spread in similar ways and with similar symptoms. I was just comparing numbers and the difference in the reporting in the media. The real stress in the healthcare system will come off the back of the cutbacks due to the government having to repay all the money borrowed to bail out businesses etc. There has surely got to be some sort of middle way. It's coming up to summer anyway. Soon enough, the old and infirm will be dying in a heatwave in Southern Europe. I don't think you can 'win' with this.

[sejintenej]

Will the extent of the lockdown prove to have been worth it...? 17,000 people die every year from complications related to seasonal Flu in England alone. A few years ago, when the vaccine didn't match up with that year's strain it was over 35,000.

We're only going to know that in hindsight, by that time we'll be back to partisan political bickering. People who haven't experienced it will complain about the damage to the economy, people who have will say we didn't go far enough or act soon enough. I don't think there will ever be an answer to that question that will satisfy a majority of people.

On a side note, I do wish people would stop comparing it with the 'flu'. It's SARS 2 and the long term complications are going to put another layer of stress on the health system that 'flu' never does.

It's coming up to summer anyway. Soon enough, the old and infirm will be dying in a heatwave in Southern Europe. I don't think you can 'win' with this.

IF you are thinking about the canicule of 2002 then forget France in that way. Within 6 weeks of discovering the reasons the authorities - comunes, hospitals etc had very detailed contingency plans to ensure that it does not happen again. That includes lists of old folk and who will check on them every day that a canicule is declared - it is shown on every weather site if applicable.
In France the problem was that the people went to the seaside for their August holidays leaving their old folk in apartments without any air conditioning and with limited / no access to fresh air. I was there in France at the time - it was upwards of 45 C degrees every day for several weeks - we were OK because we had 2 foot thick stone walls, not relatively thin concrete walls.
It was too hot to go in the pool before dark and even in the shade it felt hot. Norway was far hotter!!!!!!

[sejintenej]

Do you know of any people who would have answered 'have you been tested for covid yes/no?,' with a No...?

Yes; several. Myself, my wife, my daughter and her family, my son who is working at home, my DIL who works at St Thomas Hospital and has occasional contact with sufferers. I suspect my immediate neighbours would also answer no - one a school teacher still working and one a speech trerapist who seems to be working occasionally plus 2 OAPs

[rockfreak]

PeA questions whether I was truly thinking about class sizes and my unexpected privilege at age nine in 1952. Yes I certainly was. Even at that age I wasn't entirely stupid and maybe a bit more politically switched on than some on this site. It's called having your eyes open. Maybe I wasn't able to articulate it properly at that age - it was just a vaguely uncomfortable feeling.
I agree with AMP that if we do Brexit on January 31 (as Bumbling Boris the Bullingdon Buffoon wants us to) we shall indeed leap off the cliff into third world status. Predictions are that even after this plague has subsided we shall have a national debt of 130% of GDP. Well, after WW2 it was 220% and we needed a massive American loan (which wasn't paid back for half a century) to get back on our feet again. At least we don't have bombed-out cities to rebuild this time (are there any other OBs out there who remember that time?) but these days the problems are different. Right-wing governments are still ideologically in hock to (and dependent for funding from at election time) investment banks, hedge funds, private equity sharks, property developers, landlords, in a way that wasn't so after the war. Roosevelt in America and Attlee in Britain saw to that. Indeed I don't think that hedge funds and private equity sharks were invented back then.
Make no mistake. Boris Johnson, Sajeed Javid, Liz Truss, Priti Patel, Dominic "Where is Dover?" Raab, these are all the swivel-eyed, small state, low tax, privatise everything, free market fruitcakes that might even have made Mrs Thatcher's hair stand on end. It would be good to think that the pain will be shared equally but I've got my doubts.

[Pe.A]

PeA questions whether I was truly thinking about class sizes and my unexpected privilege at age nine in 1952. Yes I certainly was. Even at that age I wasn't entirely stupid and maybe a bit more politically switched on than some on this site. It's called having your eyes open. Maybe I wasn't able to articulate it properly at that age - it was just a vaguely uncomfortable feeling.
I agree with AMP that if we do Brexit on January 31 (as Bumbling Boris the Bullingdon Buffoon wants us to) we shall indeed leap off the cliff into third world status. Predictions are that even after this plague has subsided we shall have a national debt of 130% of GDP. Well, after WW2 it was 220% and we needed a massive American loan (which wasn't paid back for half a century) to get back on our feet again. At least we don't have bombed-out cities to rebuild this time (are there any other OBs out there who remember that time?) but these days the problems are different. Right-wing governments are still ideologically in hock to (and dependent for funding from at election time) investment banks, hedge funds, private equity sharks, property developers, landlords, in a way that wasn't so after the war. Roosevelt in America and Attlee in Britain saw to that. Indeed I don't think that hedge funds and private equity sharks were invented back then.
Make no mistake. Boris Johnson, Sajeed Javid, Liz Truss, Priti Patel, Dominic "Where is Dover?" Raab, these are all the swivel-eyed, small state, low tax, privatise everything, free market fruitcakes that might even have made Mrs Thatcher's hair stand on end. It would be good to think that the pain will be shared equally but I've got my doubts.

I was actually more curious than anything else. It just seemed an odd observation for a child that age to have. How big were the classrooms in your primary school?

With regards to Brexit, there will always be the US to welcome us with open arms...

[Foureyes]

rockfreak/redshaw really is becoming very boring. He seems to hate just about everybody and says so - again and again and again. Of course, he is entitled to free speech, but constantly reiterating the same old stuff actually stifles free speech, because it diverts, if not actually prevents, sensible and well-informed discussion by others. I also note from Google that he regularly writes to newspapers on exactly the same lines, but of course, their editors do have a choice as to whether to publish or not. I suggest that he is given his own site, which might be designated 'Redshaw's Rants', so that he can write whatever he wants and if anyone feels like replying they can do so on the same site - leaving the rest of us to discuss matters in a more meaningful way, which is what this Forum was originally intended to do.
David