COVID19

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J.R.
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COVID19

Post by J.R. »

I'm surprised no one has started this topic.

I'd love to know peoples thoughts on the subject as this appears to be becoming a very serious problem.
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Re: COVID19

Post by LongGone »

Since we are planning a visit to England next month, we are keeping a careful eye on things. We recognize that, both being in our 70s, we are in a potential high-risk group. On the other hand we are both in excellent health and neither even catch colds most years, so are fairly optimistic. One good aspect: Cunard are apparently worried about cancellations, so we have just been given a $300 credit on our bar bill. That, combined with duty-free, should keep us care-free for the week coming back.

My wife is a microbiologist and our son has worked with Dr. Fauci (Head of US Infectious Disease Institute), so I get a lot of feedback on the virus. Both seem fairly undisturbed and believe that, if the rate of infection can be reduced by minimizing travel and by quarantine, it will not become a truly dangerous threat.
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Re: COVID19

Post by J.R. »

SEE MY NEW POST ON CH FORUM.
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Re: COVID19

Post by loringa »

Whatever is done the disease will eventually spread within the UK. Social distancing as they are calling it will possibly be effective in delaying the spread until slightly later in the year when the stresses that winter imposes upon the NHS are reduced, releasing more resources to assist those suffering from Covid-19.

As I understand it, for most it will be unpleasant but they will recover relatively quickly. For those with underlying health issues, particularly respiratory issues, the consequences could be more serious. There will undoubtedly be more deaths but hopefully the numbers will be relatively small, which is precious little consolation for those who lose loved ones.

For myself, I had pneumonia on both lungs a few years ago but made (I believe) a full recovery. I am, however, very, very glad that I gave up smoking decades ago. Having been to the UK (considered medium risk) I am currently under self-imposed isolation out here in Kuwait. It was meant to be for 14 days, however, the requirement was only confirmed yesterday so it's only two days for me and I'm back at work on Sunday.

Kuwait has gone into lockdown with no foreigners (except maids travelling with their employers) allowed in to the country and no flights at all since midnight. Cafes, restaurants, cinemas, wedding halls are all shut and all schools and colleges except the one at which I work closed for at least a month. Mosques and, I think, churches are excluded as God will protect. Those returning from high risk countries (China, Singapore, Italy etc) are in quarantine in various resorts, those from high to medium risk countries are in full isolation at home with the Ministry of the Interior allegedly making random checks.

To be honest, the State does seem to have been relatively successful in slowing the spread through these measures but mass testing of foreigners who have arrived form certain medium to high risk countries does threaten to undermine this success. It was to include those of us from medium risk countries but common sense now seems to have prevailed. The general health of the nation is not good with, for example, one of the highest rates of Type 2 Diabetes in the world.

There was a bit of panic buying when the latest round of restrictions were announced but things were relatively calm the following day. I was unable, however, to buy certain items such as fresh milk, bananas, tinned tomatoes and onions, and bread and pasta were less abundant than usual. Sensibly my local supermarket seems to have removed all the shopping trolleys. Long-ish queues at checkouts though as, of course, many customers still insisted on the right to have all their purchases packed (into single use plastic bags) for them!!

Life in the shadow of Covid-19.

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Re: COVID19

Post by sejintenej »

The authorities seem to think that up to 80% of the population will get the virus but the majority of those will merely stay at home with a bad "cold-like" illness. That leaves about 8% who could be very seriously ill but they admit to having only about 1400 - 1500 specialist hospital beds.

I am at high risk - age and existing illness so I am in contact with many like people. There is one lady whose family has already been told that there will never be a bed for her and they are not to call 111. if she falls ill. Many are unable to even unable to contact doctors or specialists by phone or visit. I know of one consultant who has simply walked out of his hospital who have nobody of like skill :twisted: s to take over his appointments
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Re: COVID19

Post by rockfreak »

The draconian cuts to the health service, social care, et al by the Tory government over the past ten years will become apparent as we struggle to cope with this. As a result Boris the bumbling Bullingdon buffoon will be exposed for what he is.
There are compensations. As a Spurs fan our players (who are allegedly knackered according to Jose)) will get a well-earned rest and will return in a few weeks' time when the defenders will resort to ballwatching with renewed vigour.

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Re: COVID19

Post by jhopgood »

Spain has just gone into lockdown which has caused me a quandary. I have a ferry from Bilbao booked for Tuesday, all other Brittany Ferry departures from Spain have been cancelled. According to a friend, who intends to drive up from Spain through France next weekend, he can be considered as an exception, as he is going home, driving a UK registered car. As a British Passport holder, I might also be able to claim exceptionality, as I am also going back to the UK, although in a Spanish car. The purpose is to visit family, but we are Spanish residents. This is not yet noted on our passports, although no doubt it will after the transition period.
Driving to Valencia from our village house today, there was virtually no traffic, nor any police about. From tomorrow, we can only go out to purchase food, pharmaceuticals, visit the elderly, (if we are their carers), go to work, fill up the car, and other things of an emergency nature. In the supermarkets, there has been a run on fresh food, poultry, packed meat and fish, although the butchers, fish and delicatessen counters were full. People were stocking up on toilet paper, and all this despite the manager coming on the tannoy every five minutes to say that they had sufficient stock to replenish shelves for the foreseeable future.
My son in the UK says we are less likely to get the virus in Spain as we are already in lockdown, but if we do get to the UK, then it is more than likely that we would pick something up from one of his children. However, he would be on hand to help out, whereas in Spain, we would have to rely on friends. Not quite the same.
I had also planned to visit my other son in Lulea, but they have started cancelling flights and given me a flight to Stockholm which arrives after the flight to Lulea leaves. Good old Norwegian Air.
So my quandary is, if Brittany Ferry is working, do I run the gamut of both the army, who have been called in, and the Guardia Civil, or do I take the easy route and sit it out here in Spain, where we are not supposed to be within one metre of the nearest person?
Take the decision on Monday I suppose.
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Re: COVID19

Post by jhopgood »

Just as a red herring, my son in Lulea has read an article which suggests that the COVID 19 virus has things common to SARS and AIDS viruses, which are unlikely to appear naturally, leading to the suspicion that the virus is man made. It could have been made by the US, to gain some advantage in their war with China, or by the Chinese, in an effort to reduce their ageing population.
No smoke without a fire?
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Re: COVID19

Post by loringa »

rockfreak wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 pm
The draconian cuts to the health service, social care, et al by the Tory government over the past ten years will become apparent as we struggle to cope with this.
According to the King's Fund on 5 September last year (www.kingsfund.org.uk): NHS Budgets rose by 1.5 per cent each year on average in the 10 years between 2009/10 to 2018/19, compared to the 3.7 per cent average rises since the NHS was established. In July 2018, the NHS was given a new five-year funding deal that will see some health spending rise by 3.4 per cent on average from 2019/20 to 2023/24.

Over the same 10-year period, the Consumer Prices Index measure of inflation has fluctuated between 4.46% in 2011 and 0.04% in 2015 with the average around about 2% (which is the Government's annual target). So, it is true that NHS spending has been slightly below inflation resulting in a relatively small reduction in real terms in health spending, however, despite the assertions of the far left, whilst undesirable these do not qualify as 'draconian cuts', at least not unless you are operating within the realm of 'alternative facts', something politicians seem increasingly to be, on both sides of the House of Commons.

Let us have a real debate about health spending but how about we base our discussion on facts and not this sort of overly emotive, politically-biased misinformation?

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Re: COVID19

Post by loringa »

sejintenej wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:10 pm
The authorities seem to think that up to 80% of the population will get the virus but the majority of those will merely stay at home with a bad "cold-like" illness.

There is one lady whose family has already been told that there will never be a bed for her and they are not to call 111 if she falls ill.

Many are unable to even unable to contact doctors or specialists by phone or visit.

I know of one consultant who has simply walked out of his hospital who have nobody of like skill :twisted: s to take over his appointments
Okay - having taken Mr Redshaw to task for his politicising of the issue (of course he has), let's analyse these statements.

The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch, as reported in Atlantic magazine (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ne/607000/), predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. 70% is close to 80% as a worst case but realistically the figure is likely to be lower so let's take the midpoint of 55% as more likely.

Was this lady really told not to call 111? This contravenes UK Government guidelines so, if she was, who told her and on what authority? If this is fake news (or an alternative fact) then not helpful; if true then someone is not doing as they should.

On the subject of not being able to contact doctors or specialists this is not how we normally operate. We are registered with GP surgeries and need to contact the reception by telephone or visit and not the medical professionals directly. Alternatively, follow Government guidelines and call 111; you'll get through eventually.

As for the consultant, if he or she simply walked out then his or her behaviour needs to be questioned; as to not having a similarly skilled colleague to take over that simply looks like a resourcing issue. Most NHS trusts and the hospitals that serve them have limited numbers of specialists in any discipline so I am not sure what point this is trying to make other than raising concerns about an individual's behaviour, which is almost certainly in in breach of contract.

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Re: COVID19

Post by sejintenej »

jhopgood wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:17 pm
Just as a red herring, my son in Lulea has read an article which suggests that the COVID 19 virus has things common to SARS and AIDS viruses, which are unlikely to appear naturally, leading to the suspicion that the virus is man made. It could have been made by the US, to gain some advantage in their war with China, or by the Chinese, in an effort to reduce their ageing population.
No smoke without a fire?
According to press this statement was made by a Chinese minister when referring to a visit by US Forces medics to Wuhan in Sept or Oct. Seems to be trying to pass the blame
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Re: COVID19

Post by sejintenej »

loringa wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:24 am


The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch, as reported in Atlantic magazine (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ne/607000/), predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. 70% is close to 80% as a worst case but realistically the figure is likely to be lower so let's take the midpoint of 55% as more likely.
Worst case scenario quoted during TV statement by PM and top medical people two days ago. I would love it if your 55% were to prove correct but I am a bit pessimistic. One thing I have not been able to get is figures for Wuhan City though the preponderence of smokers there could affect the statistics
Was this lady really told not to call 111? This contravenes UK Government guidelines so, if she was, who told her and on what authority? If this is fake news (or an alternative fact) then not helpful; if true then someone is not doing as they should.
Hospital to daughter carer of elderly lady with existing COPD as reported by daughter
On the subject of not being able to contact doctors or specialists this is not how we normally operate. We are registered with GP surgeries and need to contact the reception by telephone or visit and not the medical professionals directly. Alternatively, follow Government guidelines and call 111; you'll get through eventually.
Again a COPD patient. Had already seen the consultant who had decided on but not carried out change in treatment. Patient had follow-up appointment but was phoned not to come because the consultant had left the country. Further questioning and hospital said they did not have anyone else in that speciality.
As for the consultant, if he or she simply walked out then his or her behaviour needs to be questioned; as to not having a similarly skilled colleague to take over that simply looks like a resourcing issue. Most NHS trusts and the hospitals that serve them have limited numbers of specialists in any discipline so I am not sure what point this is trying to make other than raising concerns about an individual's behaviour, which is almost certainly in in breach of contract.
Agreed

From the database I have of +/- 6000 UK COPD patients most are a bit lost. With the original diagnosis many are merely told "you have COPD" and given medicine. COPD covers a wide variety of diseases with different causes (asbestosis. smoking and miners lung are just three) and in many cases the actual disease is apparently not named. Wide variety of ages 20 to 80 or more, both sexes though more women than men, most of those with long histories now understand it and many have been in hospital at least once with it. Longest period since diagnosis that I have seen is 25 years. Insufficient data to judge range of severities - we only hear references to the most severe. Looking at my local practice figures seems to be 2% such patients


EDIT: just seen some figures. These suggest that of those tested for the virus 3.7% died. When we accept that probably a large number do not report feeling off or otherwise do not get tested then that 3.7% has to be higher than actual
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Re: COVID19

Post by LongGone »

“ EDIT: just seen some figures. These suggest that of those tested for the virus 3.7% died.”
So, obviously the safe thing is to not get tested! :D
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Re: COVID19

Post by sejintenej »

LongGone wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:53 am
“ EDIT: just seen some figures. These suggest that of those tested for the virus 3.7% died.”
So, obviously the safe thing is to not get tested! :D
and how do you ensure that?
Obvious way is not to get infected or have such strong immunity that it is no worse than a bad cold but the odds of that are not overwhelmingly in out favour.

Some people have lessened or even no resistance to disease. Fingers are pointed at the elderly and those who are already ill. An easy target but they omit anyone who has had a transplant and many other classes of patients. We are learning more every day and every day totally unbelievable information is being foisted upon us. I saw this morning a doctor claiming that the virus cannot survive above 28C - he ignores that normal blood temperature is 36.9C.and he produced far more doubtful claims.
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Re: COVID19

Post by graham »

jhopgood wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:17 pm
Just as a red herring, my son in Lulea has read an article which suggests that the COVID 19 virus has things common to SARS and AIDS viruses, which are unlikely to appear naturally, leading to the suspicion that the virus is man made.
COVID actually is a type of SARS-corona virus (SARS standing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). So the current pandemic is due to a virus that is very similar to the one that caused the major outbreak back in 2002. The precise source is unknown but it doesn't require conspiracy theories, sadly. The 2002 case seemed to be transferred to humans from civets (a relative of cats and mongooses from SE Asia) and the COVID 19 bears similarities to a coronavirus found in bats and pangolins, both of which are traded and consumed (the latter illegally) in parts of China. Its entirely consistent with a natural zoonotic (transfer between non-human animals and humans) event.

HIV, the virus causing AIDS, is a virus but different from coronaviruses.
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