LongGone wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:44 pm
For those of us on the other side of the Atlantic, what is going on? Does BJ think an election would give him a clear majority? What is the rationale (if any) behind the support of other parties? I understand I may get very different answers from various members.
Bit of a long post, and also just my own opinions on it.
1) Not sure to be honest. Even though I've tried my best to follow what's going on, it's still not clear. Basically, some big and tough decisions have to be made soon but like most people with a middle management mindset, no one wants to take any responsibility for upsetting a large chunk of the electorate.
2) Probably, although I think he's hoping it'll magically solve all the current problems without requiring any actual effort from him but still letting take all the credit. Also, I'm fairly sure Dom told him it was a top idea, so there's that too. Despite the similarities between the Johnson/Cummings and May/Timothy double acts, the reasons for an election, and the general state of parliament on both occasions, we're being told that this time it's completely different and they're not just doing the exact same thing and hoping for a completely different result.
3) Labour - well, there's not much they/Corbyn love more than campaigning, so it's a case of why not. Also they don't have much choice in the matter if an election gets voted on as an amendment to the FTPA rather than as a direct vote on it. One requires a majority of 1, the other requires a 2/3 majority. They don't have the numbers to block it if it's an amendment.
LibDems - Honestly, who knows or cares? They are campaigning for remaining in the EU which means they may pick up some extra remain leaning Tory/Labour seats, but not enough to stay relevant. If they do super well, they may get enough to be the small spoon in a coalition, probably with the Cons, after which they'll face another decade in the political wilderness as they cop all the blame for any disastrous Con policies they allow through. Just like last time.
The SNP believe that they can get rid of the last remaining non-SNP politicians in Scotland and that it will help promote the Scot Independence cause.
As for the rest (Grn/DUP/Ind/TIG/etc), their views are irrelevant. A lot of them are not standing for re-election anyway (Soames/Clarke/etc) and a few more are facing deselection after having the whip taken away.
Then you have the BXP and (what's left of) UKip. In theory, they may have enough voting support to pick up a seat or two in leave-leaning Labour seats up north and maybe a few Tory seats, but they don't seem like doing much else. Even though this is a Brexit focused election, people still vote on more than the one issue, as we saw in the last snap election that was supposed to settle this mess once and for all.
While a lot of people say they support Farage, you also have to remember that's he's failed on 7 separate occasions to get into the lower house. On one occasion he garnered fewer votes than a guy in a dolphin costume. In theory he could move to a more winnable seat, but then he'd have to give up his MEP perks and move out of London. For a bunch of reasons, that's not very likely. While the UK electorate is happy enough to send BXP/UKip to the EU, they tend to keep them out of national politics. It's a lot like the LePen political dynasty. They get a lot of support, but when push comes to shove, the French voters seem to love nothing more than giving them a glimmer of hope, then dashing it by electing someone like Macron as president. Trolling on a national scale.
Anyway, that's just my take on the whole affair. I'm sure that others will have different ones.