Brexit

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time please
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Brexit

Post by time please »

This topic should perhaps be here.

It is getting better all the time. Boris has just decided that if diplomacy does not work...bring in the Gun Boats..which is a form of diplomacy ( back in the Rule Brittania days ) So how does Macron answer? Send his rather large aircraft carrier along the Channel? I believe that his aircraft carrier is fully equipped and working unlike the RN.

What books does Boris read before he goes to sleep? " Carry on chaps! Nice one Biggles. Stand fast!!!

This lunacy must stop and now.
loringa
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Re: Brexit

Post by loringa »

Not before 2 May 2024 I fear.
rockfreak
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Re: Brexit

Post by rockfreak »

Well c'mon guys and gals, what do we think? No trade tariffs on goods but now a customs union holding our lorries up? Still a barrier in the Irish sea with no technology yet to ensure seamless movement? Nothing yet on Services - much the biggest part of our GDP? Services does not attract tariffs but is hedged around with rules and regulations (ie bureaucracy) which has been devised over many years to ensure that, for instance, our tech software companies can export our expertise to German buyers with relative ease? What of all this? Nothing. Nada. Rien. Niet. Zilch. And then there's financial services. You would think Banker Brown would be a bit exercised about this. No financial passport. An item I saw in the financial pages of the more reliable broadsheet papers said that we had already lost billions and billions of quidsworth of business to abroad over the past few years as the City hedges its bets. And talking of hedging, Jacob Rees-Mogg (that doughty little patriot) has already moved his hedge fund to Dublin.

There must inevitably now be more friction with the EU rather than less. Our biggest trading partner and the one on our doorstep. Sovereignty? We're apparently free of the European Court of Justice but the EU has thoughtfully put in place arbitration measures that will ensure we can't undercut them on product standards, environmental standards and workers' rights. What will almost certainly happen though is that we shall revert to our shabby old ways with things like dirty water and dirty beaches. Boarding schools? They will continue to be colonised by the sons of Saudi princes, Russian gangsters and Singaporean oligarchs.Western European parents already have their own perfectly good schools to send their children to.
sejintenej
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Re: Brexit

Post by sejintenej »

rockfreak wrote: Sat Dec 26, 2020 8:00 pm Well c'mon guys and gals, what do we think?
Dead easy. If Labour doesn't then Macron will scupper the whole caboodle
And then there's financial services. You would think Banker Brown would be a bit exercised about this.
somewhere like 80% of big ticket deals still go through London for one very simple reason; our laws and legal system; at any time you know exactly where you are and the courts will uphold the letter of the law. It is simple relative to other legal systems
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rockfreak
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Re: Brexit

Post by rockfreak »

I don't know what these wonderful British laws are but would they be the same ones that failed to stop Nigel Lawson's deregulated City from tanking our economy in 1990 and 2007?
scrub
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Re: Brexit

Post by scrub »

rockfreak wrote: Sat Dec 26, 2020 8:00 pmWell c'mon guys and gals, what do we think?
As someone who understands trade legalese better than I ever will has succinctly put it "there are two winners from this deal; The EU and Boris Johnson." The EU has maintained its advantage in areas where it had a surplus with the UK (physical goods), and put some tricky curbs on areas where it had a deficit (services). Johnson has declared victory, the Conservative party and its friendly press have both rallied around him nullifying the ERG. The 80 seat majority nullifies Labour, although they will most likely support it anyway. The fact that only one of Vote Leave's promises (and Johnson's personal manifesto) to the nation has been 100% fulfilled by this is completely irrelevant. It's being spun as a success, so a success it shall be.

The devil is, as they say, in the detail. And there is a lot of detail to wade through, most of which is dense and impenetrable to people who haven't spent a large chunk of their lives devoted to developing it.

The only reason I can see for Labour objecting to it is ideology or/and idiocy. It contains some strict rules on workers rights and environmental welfare that are more than they usually argue for.

While no tariffs or quotas have been raised on (most) physical goods, non-tariff barriers have. That is entirely a consequence of leaving the single market (a commonly espoused Brexiteer "Red Line") and becoming a third country in trading terms, so was, or should have been, expected (and planned for). Some of this directly affects me, so I have tried to understand it as best I can, but the short version is: paperwork, customs checks, and delays while both are verified. A pain, but for the limited things I needed to bring into the UK, not a huge problem, but for the things I have sent out of the UK, it becomes one. Actually, it's not much different to how I had to do things when living and working in Oz, so while it's a faff, it's not completely unfamiliar territory for me. For the majority of Brits to whom this will be a new adventure, ooooh baby, you are in for some fun.

The non-trade stuff is where things get thornier. Non-recognition of professional qualifications is a major killer for UK trained professionals (solicitors and accountants, amongst others) wanting to ply their trade in the EU. Rules of origin are going to be a big problem when the change from internal combustion engine cars to electric ones comes in, but for now the car industry has a reprieve. Equivalence has not been addressed and it's not something I have any expertise in understanding, but is crucial for the financial sector to keep "business as usual". It won't be addressed until the middle of the year. Neither will the rules on data sharing and storage. It''s difficult to state how important those are for the healthcare and finsec sectors. Withdrawing from the Erasmus scheme seems pointless but was another ideological "Red Line", and replacing it with something smaller and not even running yet is another baffling decision. As is replacing EHIC with GHIC, for broadly similar reasons.

The deal also appears to have a number of kill switches in it and can therefore be terminated if breaches in any specific area are made by either side. Most notably is the one in the fishing section. If the deal on fish is not adhered to by either side, the entire deal can be declared null and void. It seems to be the trade equivalent of M.A.D. and who knows who or why it's there, but it is.

Like I say though, I'm not an expert and I'm relying on people who are to help me understand the bits I don't.

TL/DR version: Better than no deal (or the Australia Arrangement), which was the only alternative.
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loringa
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Re: Brexit

Post by loringa »

Thank you Scrub - that was most interesting and good to hear from someone who seems to have a comprehensive and detailed understanding of the consequences of Brexit.

At least we have a deal of sorts, however flawed, and I suspect it was the best we could have hoped for seeing as the EU hold most of the bargaining chips. I think almost everyone with the slightest understanding of the mechanics of trade recognises that, whatever deal we managed to strike, Brexit would be bad for the economy, the question was always how bad?

It will be interesting to hear how the so-called European Research Group react. They won't like it, of course, and I am sure they will start bleating on again (and again) about sovereignty but I am confident it will get through Parliament with the support of the Labour Party.

For me personally Brexit will be inconvenient in all the relatively trivial ways that international travel outside the EU is currently. Whilst I have an EU passport my family don't so there will be the inevitable border delays and I will need a green card or whatever it is called to drive in the EU. I am not entitled to an Irish EHIC as I am domiciled in the UK, and one can be certain that we will all start to pay roaming charges again for using our mobiles in the EU. Brexit is more likely to affect my wife directly as she may find it more difficult to sell services to EU customers though hopefully her Australian professional qualifications will still be recognised even if her British qualifications aren't.

It's been four and a half years since the referendum and I for one am yet to see anything at all that looks like it might be a benefit from Brexit. All 'sovereignty' seems to mean is more bureaucracy and cost at our borders, plus a few more fish in six years' time. Mr Trump is on his way out and Mr Biden isn't remotely interested in a trade deal; he is far more interested in the Irish border and will undoubtedly act as he sees fit if Mr Johnson resurrects his threats to break international law over the treaty. So, once again, I would like to invite the Brexiteers to put on record, ideally without using the s-word, when exactly we are going to enter the sunlit uplands of Brexit, and what benefits it has to offer the UK!
Last edited by loringa on Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
scrub
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Re: Brexit

Post by scrub »

Thank you, although I don't think I have anything more than a child-like comprehension of the details that affect me, let alone the rest. I try and read as much as I can from people who seem to be experts in various areas, but it's like going deep sea fishing without a working sonar fish finder. I haven't the foggiest how to read the sea, but when people who can get excited/angry at something, I get the notion that there is something there I should be happy/wary about, even if I have no idea exactly what it is. Over time, I think I can see the outline of what it is, but not the detail.

The bits that will affect me personally and professionally, specifically the data laws and the UK's status in the EU science program, are still to be determined. The impact on academic and industrial biomedical R&D could be quite profound, and I think the worst case scenario will be a "slow puncture" of talent and influence. That sort of thing that won't be widely recognised for a decade or so and is incredibly hard to reverse, just look at Australia and how they've had to deal with their ongoing "brain drain". In this case a "cliff edge" would be better in the long run as it would force politicians to focus and address an immediate problem, rather than give them another can to kick down the road.

It's funny you should mention Australian qualifications. When we started looking to move to the continent, we found that after 01.01.2021, it would be easier to move under our Oz passports. The reason being that the EU already knows what the deal is with Oz scientists, and while they don't get to move in as freely as EU citizens, there is a well defined path for them. Since the UK's relationship was (and still is) unclear, no such path exists yet. Things like visa costs and quotas have not yet been talked about. Fortunately for us, our plans were accelerated, so we're covered by the WA, but this has caused a lot of stress. Moving is never easy, moving countries less so, and doing so during a pandemic and with very tight margins for error in terms of timing is something only a pair of idiots would do. But here we are.
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loringa
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Re: The Great Benefits of Brexit!

Post by loringa »

In order to put Brexit back where it belongs, ie not in CH Stuff but here instead, here are some more expert opinions on the realities of 'taking back control of our borders':

British exports to the European Union fell by 68% in January this year compared with the same time period last year, a study has shown. According to the Road Haulage Association (RHA) 65-75% of vehicles arriving from the EU were returning to the bloc empty. The organisation said that this was because of a lack of goods, delays in Britain, and because UK firms had stopped exporting to the bloc. RHA’s chief executive Richard Burnett told the Observer that it was “deeply frustrating and annoying that ministers have chosen not to listen to the industry and experts” who have consistently called for more government deliberation. The figures, based on a survey of the RHA's members, was detailed in a letter the RHA sent to Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove on Monday pleading for "urgent intervention" to support critical supply chains. The chief executive who largely blamed Brexit for the decline told the newspaper: “Since transition, we have worked tirelessly to demonstrate the devastating consequences these changes are having but it is very clear that government are not doing enough to address them.” He did however point out that he didn’t believe that the coronavirus pandemic was to blame for the dramatic drop in exports. "For clarity, the current situation should not be considered a consequences of COVID. If anything, the absence of the pandemic would have made it worse, because volumes would be greater," Burnett said. Additionally the organisation called for the number of customs agents to be increased to assist businesses with the Brexit paperwork. It said that the current number of about 10,000 agents is only “about a fifth” of what is necessary. Under the terms, tariffs will be charged on goods that do not meet rules of origin requirements. But, the new Brexit system and sheer volumes of the paperwork is said to have caused confusion and delays at borders since 1 January. UK businesses will need to submit 215 more customs forms a year after Brexit — which could cost £12bn, according to government calculations published last July.

Now, let's please have some comments from the Brexiteers of whom there are (were?) a number on this forum. I'd like to know what I have missed and why, in reality, leaving is a good thing, thank you!
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Re: The Great Benefits of Brexit!

Post by Katharine »

loringa wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:35 am Now, let's please have some comments from the Brexiteers of whom there are (were?) a number on this forum. I'd like to know what I have missed and why, in reality, leaving is a good thing, thank you!
I would love to know why it is supposed to be a good thing - so far I have seen nothing whatever to recommend it. I would also like to know what those Leave voters actually thought the result of leaving would be? Did they really imagine the Single Market would continue?
Katharine Dobson (Hills) 6.14, 1959 - 1965
time please
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Re: Brexit

Post by time please »

After many hours of hard thinking I came up with something!!!

Tax free! Yes it is true I will now be able to bring back 2 litres of spirits with me. Plus fags. But not snuff ( snus ).

I will keep thinking but am not really cetain if there is something else.
sejintenej
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Re: Brexit

Post by sejintenej »

time please wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:50 am After many hours of hard thinking I came up with something!!!

Tax free! Yes it is true I will now be able to bring back 2 litres of spirits with me. Plus fags. But not snuff ( snus ).

I will keep thinking but am not really cetain if there is something else.
I think it is only ONE litre of spirits EU to UK but Andorra to France is 2 litres. 200 fags (400 ex Andorra to france).

Andorra to France if you did not take the full allowance on something they allowed you to go over on something else provided you were not being silly about it. UK is 1 liter not one centilitre over.
You forgot the perfume and there is a monetary value of assorted other things

I will say the UK customs USED to be decent; I came back from Norway with masses of things over the limit (for our house after we married) which I declared. I had a list for the officer so he chose the cheapest item and charged me the tax on that.

Living in France but with a house in England I had to fly back via Gatwick for a funeral. I was stopped after the green lane.
Him: "Where have you come from?"
Me: "Carcassonne, France"
Him: "Why are you here?"
Me: "I am going to a funeral"
Him: "How long will you be here?"
Me; "3 days"
Him: Whose funeral?"

and so it went on and on and on. I had a UK passport, proof that I had come from France, a return ticket .... but he never even asked. I even have a (?hoighty-toighty thanks to CH) British accent! If the silly a***hole had started by asking to see my passport and ticket ..... I would not have been so pissed. I hate Gatwick; when I was injured at security they have no first aid facilities in the entire airport - I asked because I was dropping blood everywhere and was told to get myself to A and E and miss my flight. Complained and they didn't even answer perhaps because I was abroad by then.
What happens if a politician drowns in a river? That is pollution.
What happens if all of them drown? That is solution!!!
scrub
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Re: Brexit

Post by scrub »

time please wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:50 amTax free! Yes it is true I will now be able to bring back 2 litres of spirits with me. Plus fags. But not snuff ( snus ).
I remember when the personal import limits were replaced with "as much as you can carry for personal consumption", so the Dover to Calais ferry really was just an industrial sized booze cruise.
Funnily enough, I seem to remember that the increased limits were being sold as a benefit of joining the single market.

I guess that means that the house booze cruise will be a thing of the past? I remember the one we went on after we'd finished A-levels. HH did his best to try and limit things a bit, but there's only so much he could have done :lol: .

In terms of overall benefits, I guess the proposed creation of 50,000 customs-related jobs counts as one, and given that some imports will become prohibitively expensive, new local industries will probably come in to fill the gaps (or the bigger local chains will just expand further). It'll take time for the benefits of either of those to be felt though. For some things, consumers will have to get used to higher prices and/or less choice which, if you're indecisive and have too much money, could also be considered a benefit!
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loringa
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Re: Brexit

Post by loringa »

Here's another from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55997641

To summarise: The boss of one of Britain's big retailers says Brexit has turned out to be "considerably worse" than he feared. Peter Cowgill, chairman of JD Sports, said the red tape and delays in shipping goods to mainland Europe meant "double-digit millions" in extra costs. He said told the BBC JD Sports may open an EU-based distribution centre to ease the problems, which would mean creating jobs overseas and not in the UK.

We have only been out of the single market for 6 weeks and, despite the last-minute deal cobbled together in lieu of the promised 'oven ready' one the PM had at the General Election, the words absolute and shambles spring to mind. I take very little satisfaction in we so-called remoaners seeming to be being proved right, as it was abundantly obvious to all of us at the time of the referendum and thereafter right up until 2300 on 31 Dec 20 that we would be, but all the chickens really are coming home to roost now - and it has only been 6 weeks!

The question is, what can we now do about it to avoid our children growing up in a world with even fewer prospects and on a world stage where we are increasingly becoming a bit of a laughing stock? I know the EU is hardly a model of propriety and efficiency but surely you'd have to have had some very strange ideas indeed to think we would really be better off outside it?

Answers on a postcard before 2 May 24 please to B Johnson Esq, 10 Downing Street, London, SW1A 2AA

Oh wait - I've got it, sovereignty, that's it. :-)
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Re: Brexit

Post by Katharine »

Andrew, Can you or anybody else tell me just what is meant by this often much vaunted sovereignty?
Katharine Dobson (Hills) 6.14, 1959 - 1965
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